Large rise in CO2 emissions sounds climate change alarm

Hopes for 'safe' temperature increase within 2C fade as Hawaii station documents second-greatest emissions increase
The chances of the world holding temperature rises to 2C – the level of global warming considered "safe" by scientists – appear to be fading fast with US scientists reporting the second-greatest annual rise in CO₂ emissions in 2012.
Carbon dioxide levels measured at at Mauna Loa observatory in Hawaii jumped by 2.67 parts per million (ppm) in 2012 to 395ppm, said Pieter Tans, who leads the greenhouse gas measurement team for the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). The record was an increase of 2.93ppm in 1998.
The jump comes as a study published in Science on Thursday looking at global surface temperatures for the past 1,500 years warned that "recent warming is unprecedented", prompting UN climate chief, Christiana Figueres, to say that "staggering global temps show urgent need to act. Rapid climate change must be countered with accelerated action."
Tans told the Associated Press the major factor was an increase in fossil fuel use. "It's just a testament to human influence being dominant", he said. "The prospects of keeping climate change below that [two-degree goal] are fading away."
Preliminary data for February 2013 show CO₂ levels last month standing at their highest ever recorded at Manua Loa, a remote volcano in the Pacific. Last month they reached a record 396.80ppm with a jump of 3.26ppm parts per million between February 2012 and 2013.
Carbon dioxide levels fluctuate seasonally, with the highest levels usually observed in April. Last year the highest level at Mauna Loa was measured at 396.18ppm.
What is disturbing scientists is the the acceleration of CO₂ concentrations in the atmosphere, which are occurring in spite of attempts by governments to restrain fossil fuel emissions.
According to the observatory, the average annual rate of increase for the past 10 years has been 2.07ppm – more than double the increase in the 1960s. The average increase in CO₂ levels between 1959 to the present was 1.49ppm per year.
The Mauna Loa measurements coincide with a new peer-reviewed study of the pledges made by countries to reduce CO2 emissions. The Dutch government's scientific advisers show that rich countries will have to reduce enissions by 50% percent below 1990 levels by 2020 if there is to be even a medium chance of limiting warming to 2C, thus preventing some of climate change's worst impacts.
"The challenge we already knew was great is even more difficult", said Kelly Levin, a researcher with the World Resources Instistute in Washington. "But even with an increased level of reductions necessary, it shows that a 2° goal is still attainable – if we act ambitiously and immediately."
Extreme weather, which is predicted by climate scientists to occur more frequently as the atmosphere warms and CO2 levels rise, has already been seen widely in 2013.
China and India have experienced their coldest winter in decades and Australia has seen a four-month long heat wave with 123 weather records broken during what scientists are calling its 'angry summer'.
"We are in [getting] into new climatic territory. And when you get records being broken at that scale, you can start to see a shifting from one climate system to another. So the climate has in one sense actually changed and we are now entering a new series of climatic conditions that we just haven't seen before", said Tim Flannery, head of the Australian government's climate change commission, this week.
Earlier this week the Met Office warned that the "extreme" patterns of flood and drought experienced by Britain in 2012 were likely to become more frequent. One in every five days in 2012 saw flooding but one in four days were in drought.
guardian.co.uk © 2013 Guardian News and Media Limited or its affiliated companies. All rights reserved.

A new technique to simulate climate change

Providence RI (SPX) Mar 06, 2013



Scientists are using ever more complex models running on ever more powerful computers to simulate the earth's climate. But new research suggests that basic physics could offer a simpler and more meaningful way to model key elements of climate.

The research, published in the journal Physical Review Letters, shows that a technique called direct statistical simulation does a good job of model

Past Antarctic warming tied to greenhouse gas

Rising carbon dioxide levels may have caused Antarctic warming in the past, new research strongly suggests. The findings, published Thursday in the journal Science, just add to the body of evidence that human-caused greenhouse gas emissions will lead to climate change.

Seals take scientists to Antarctic's ocean floor

Elephant seals wearing head sensors and swimming deep beneath Antarctic ice have helped scientists better understand how the ocean's coldest, deepest waters are formed, providing vital clues to understanding its role in the world's climate.

Patterns and Drivers of Tree Mortality in Iberian Forests: Climatic Effects Are Modified by Competition

by Paloma Ruiz-Benito, Emily R. Lines, Lorena Gómez-Aparicio, Miguel A. Zavala, David A. Coomes

Tree mortality is a key process underlying forest dynamics and community assembly. Understanding how tree mortality is driven by simultaneous drivers is needed to evaluate potential effects of climate change on forest composition. Using repeat-measure information from c. 400,000 trees from the Spanish Forest Inventory, we quantified the relative importance of tree size, competition, climate and edaphic conditions on tree mortality of 11 species, and explored the combined effect of climate and competition. Tree mortality was affected by all of these multiple drivers, especially tree size and asymmetric competition, and strong interactions between climate and competition were found. All species showed L-shaped mortality patterns (i.e. showed decreasing mortality with tree size), but pines were more sensitive to asymmetric competition than broadleaved species. Among climatic variables, the negative effect of temperature on tree mortality was much larger than the effect of precipitation. Moreover, the effect of climate (mean annual temperature and annual precipitation) on tree mortality was aggravated at high competition levels for all species, but especially for broadleaved species. The significant interaction between climate and competition on tree mortality indicated that global change in Mediterranean regions, causing hotter and drier conditions and denser stands, could lead to profound effects on forest structure and composition. Therefore, to evaluate the potential effects of climatic change on tree mortality, forest structure must be considered, since two systems of similar composition but different structure could radically differ in their response to climatic conditions.

Climate scientists link global warming to extreme weather

Blame giant, increasingly lazy atmospheric waves
There has been a healthy debate in the scientific community about the linkage, if any, between the recent spate of extreme weather events and the ongoing increase in global temperatures. Now a group of researchers reports they've uncovered an atmospheric mechanism that lends credence to the argument that, yes, global warming is to blame for at least some of our increasingly mucked-up weather.…

Hotter, Wetter Cimate Slashes Labor Capacity by 10 Percent

By Environment Correspondent Deborah Zabarenko
WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Earth's increasingly hot, wet climate has cut the amount of work people can do in the worst heat by about 10 percent in the past six decades, and that loss in labor capacity could double by mid-century, U.S. [More]

Rethinking Our Response to Climate Change: Carbon Wedges 2.0

New York City could cut greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 90% by 2050 by implementing a portfolio of energy reduction measures using existing technologies, according to a report released last week by the Urban Green Council.

Cold-tolerant grapes expand wine country

St. Paul, Minn. (UPI) Feb 23, 2013



Cold-tolerant grapes developed by University of Minnesota researchers have sparked the doubling of the number of wineries in the state in the past six years.
It wasn't that long ago that Minnesota had no wine-making industry at all, the St. Paul Pioneer Press noted. But that has changed at this week about 400 peopled attended the Cold Climate Conference in St. Paul to learn more about ....

Latin America Analysis: Environmental Policy and Deforestation

In a year that was marked by bad news on the environmental front — the polar ice caps melting at an increasing rate, the decline in biodiversity, the failure to reach agreement on climate change, amongst other things — the release of data, at the end of 2012, showing a fall in deforestation in the Amazon, one of the most important biomes in the world, came as a relief.
According to estimates by the National Institute for Space Research (INPE) — a Brazilian organisation that conducts environmental surveillance programmes in the region — 4,600 km2 of jungle, in Brazilian territory, were deforested between August 2011 and July 2012. This is a drop of 27 per cent, compared with the same period, a year before.
Brazil, where deforestation is seen as the main cause of carbon emissions, has set itself a voluntary goal to reduce illegal logging, annually, in the Amazon, to an annual maximum of 3,900 km2 by 2020. The latest figures would seem to indicate that the country is only four per cent shy of reaching its goal.
Celebrations, however, have been short-lived. The Amazon's monthly deforestation alert system is already showing a marked increase in the area cleared in the last five months of 2012

New Study Shows Independent Evidence Of Global Warming

One of the biggest challenges of climate science seems like it should be one of the easiest; measuring temperatures. The fact is, regular measurements of temperature around the globe didn't being in real earnest until the late 19th century. So when scientists what to understand what temperatures were like prior to that era, they have to use proxies. For example, scientists can tell by the way ice crystallizes what the weather and temperature was like thousands of years ago in ice core samples from polar regions. In the modern era, although there have been steady measurements, they've taken place at different sites at different times with different technologies, which means some heavy math can come into play to normalize that data well enough to see clear trends.

'Alien' Wildlife in Europe Wreak $16 Billion Damage a Year

By Environment Correspondent Alister Doyle
OSLO (Reuters) - Animals and plants brought to Europe from other parts of the world are a bigger-than-expected threat to health and the environment costing at least $16 billion a year, a study said on Thursday.
More than 10,000 "alien" species have gained a foothold in Europe, from Asian tiger mosquitoes to North American ragweed, and at least 1,500 are known to be harmful, the European Environment Agency (EEA) said.
"In many areas, ecosystems are weakened by pollution, climate change and fragmentation. [More]

Climate Change Adaptation for Agriculture, Forests

The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) on February 5 released "two comprehensive reports that synthesize the scientific literature on climate change effects and adaptation strategies for U.S. agriculture and forests." The effects of climate change will be profound and far-reaching, according to the two reports, which drew on more than 1,000 peer-reviewed studies carried out by scientists in federal service, universities, non-governmental organizations, industry, tribal lands and the private sector.

Mosquito repellent Deet 'losing its effectiveness'

Repellent widely used by holidaymakers and residents in warm climates 'losing its effectiveness'.

Over 35,000 march on Washington demanding climate action and rejection of Canada's 'carbon bomb'

 Yesterday over 35,000 people rallied in Washington D.C. for urgent action on climate change, which, according to organizers, was the largest climate march in U.S. history. Activists called on the Obama Administration to do much more to tackle climate change, including rejecting the Keystone XL Pipeline, which would bring carbon-heavy tar sands oil from Canada through the U.S. to a world market.

Halve meat consumption, scientists urge rich world

UN study says horsemeat scandal exposed dark side of cheap meat and shows how farming practices are destroying natural world
People in the rich world should become "demitarians" – eating half as much meat as usual, while stopping short of giving it up – in order to avoid severe environmental damage, scientists have urged, in the clearest picture yet of how farming practices are destroying the natural world.
They said the horsemeat scandal had uncovered the dark side of our lust for meat, which has fuelled a trade in undocumented livestock and mislabelled cheap ready meals. "There is a food chain risk," said Professor Mark Sutton, who coined the term demitarian and is lead author of a UN Environment Programme study published on Monday . "Now is a good time to talk to people about this."
The quest for ever cheaper meat in the past few decades – most people even in rich countries ate significantly less meat one and two generations ago – has resulted in a massive expansion of intensively farmed livestock. This has diverted vast quantities of grain from human to animal consumption, requiring intensive use of fertilisers, pesticides and herbicides and, according to the UNEP report, "caused a web of water and air pollution that is damaging human health". The run-off from these chemicals is creating dead zones in the seas, causing toxic algal blooms and killing fish, while some are threatening bees, amphibians and sensitive ecosystems. "The attention this meat scare has drawn [highlights] poor quality meat. It shows society must think about livestock and food choices much more, for the environment and health," said Sutton.
The answer, Sutton said, was more vegetables on the plate, and less animal protein. "Eat meat, but less often – make it special," he urged. "Portion size is key. Many portions are too big, more than you want to eat. Think about a change of culture that says, 'I like the taste, but I don't need so much of it.'"
By filling plates with vegetables as well as the meat, people will be better nourished. "Most people don't notice," he said, citing a recent UN event at which the chef used a third the amount of meat, more vegetables to make up for it, and more than 90% of guests were just as satisfied.
Sutton was speaking about the rich west, the US and Europe in particular. He wants the change in diet to be pioneered in Europe, as the US will be a tougher nut to crack. The UN scientists said people in poor countries should be allowed to increase their consumption of animal protein, which billions of people are lacking. But if that is so as not to cause environmental harm, the move to meat in the developing world must be balanced with a reduction in the amount consumed in developed countries.
Chicken and pork are likely to be the meats that cause less environmental damage in relative terms, though standards of welfare and the circumstances in which livestock are raised can make a big difference. "Chicken is one of the most efficient [meats] as it grows very quickly and you can collect the manure," said Sutton. Meat production accounts for 80% of the nitrogen and phosphorus used in farming, according to the UNEP report, entitled Our Nutrient World: The challenge to produce more food and energy with less pollution. These nutrients are produced at great expense globally, but most of them end up wasted through the animals' manure. In some areas of the world, the nutrients are in short supply, resulting in lower crop yields.
UNEP warned: "Unless action is taken, increases in pollution and per capita consumption of energy and animal products will exacerbate nutrient losses, pollution levels and land degradation, further threatening the quality of our water, air and soils, affecting climate and biodiversity."
The report also set out a variety of measures by which farming could be made more environmentally friendly, from simple steps such as storing fertilisers more securely and using them more sparingly, and capturing greenhouse gas emissions from their production. Nitrogen use could be cut by 20m tonnes by 2020, saving £110bn a year. Reusing waste, such as manure, and treating sewage using modern methods would also save hundreds of billions.

guardian.co.uk © 2013 Guardian News and Media Limited or its affiliated companies. All rights reserved.

Lungs of the planet reveal their true sensitivity to global warming

Exeter UK (SPX) Feb 14, 2013



Tropical rainforests are often called the "lungs of the planet" because they generally draw in carbon dioxide and breathe out oxygen. But the amount of carbon dioxide that rainforests absorb, or produce, varies hugely with year-to-year variations in the climate.

In a paper published online tby the journal Nature, a team of climate scientists from the University of Exeter, the Met Office

Americans back climate change regulation, not taxes

Durham NC (SPX) Feb 14, 2013



Now that President Obama has put climate change back on the table in his second inaugural address, a new national poll finds growing public support for regulating greenhouse gas emissions and requiring utilities to switch to lower-carbon fuel sources.

The percentage of Americans who think climate change is occurring has rebounded, according to the Duke University national online survey, ....

Sunlight stimulates release of carbon dioxide from permafrost

Ann Arbor MI (SPX) Feb 14, 2013



Ancient carbon trapped in Arctic permafrost is extremely sensitive to sunlight and, if exposed to the surface when long-frozen soils melt and collapse, can release climate-warming carbon dioxide gas into the atmosphere much faster than previously thought.

University of Michigan ecologist and aquatic biogeochemist George Kling and his colleagues studied places in Arctic Alaska where permafrost ....

Chemistry trick kills climate controversy

Copenhagen, Denmark (SPX) Feb 14, 2013



Volcanoes are well known for cooling the climate. But just how much and when has been a bone of contention among historians, glaciologists and archeologists. Now a team of atmosphere chemists, from the Tokyo Institute of Technology and the University of Copenhagen, has come up with a way to say for sure which historic episodes of global cooling were caused by volcanic eruptions.

The answer ....